Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season
Welcome (a bit early) Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC) Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready? I'll go with: SWIO: ' 14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones. '''Aus. Region: ' 15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones. 'S. Pac: ' 18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones. I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC) SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC) There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... ''Ryan1000'' 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : My bad for creating the betting pool.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC) : The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) ( ) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC) South-West Indian Ocean Australian Region 99P.INVEST This invest is in the Arafura Sea.Cy10 12:52, April 15, 2012 (UTC) South Pacific Region Retirements at a Glance Here's mine: AUS: *Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted. *Grant - 40% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one? *Heidi - 10% - Flooding counts. *Iggy - <5% - Probably not. *Jasmine - <0.1% - Any damage in SPAC doesn't count. *Koji - Negative 10% - No. *Lua - 50% - Coin toss. SPAC: *Cyril - 5% - Not enough damage. *Daphne - 10% - Flooding does count, but not enough. --Cy10 15:43, April 6, 2012 (UTC) Mine: AUS: #Fina - 0% - No impact. #Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment? #Heidi - 2% - Very unlikely for retirement because there were no deaths, and although there was some minor flooding going on, I didn't hear anyone saying this was bad. #Iggy - 10% - No. #Jasmine - 0% - Did nothing in the AUS area. #Koji - 0% - No way! #'Lua - 50% - A coin toss chance of being retired based on what everyone is saying. ' SPAC: #Cyril - 0% - No impact. #Daphne - 3% - Affected little areas with flooding. Andrew444TalkBlog 22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC) : Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. —13R. ''' 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC) : So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?--Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444TalkBlog 22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Here's the link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16336578.--Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC) Time for mine. #Fina: 0% - Yes, a fail #Grant: 10% - The first to cause damage in this season #Heidi: 5% - Meh #Iggy: 10% - Some damage and deaths in Indonesia, but other than that... nothing #Jasmine: 15% - Caused record breaking flooding in NSW and QLD #Cyril: 5% - I'm sorry, but for those saying "No damage", you seriously need to look harder. This storm caused widespread damage to vegetation and plantation in Tonga #Koji: 0% - Nah, didn't like this one #Lua: 45% - Total destruction to the shipping industry in Pilbara #Daphne: 5% - See Cyril - once again guys, look harder —''12R. '' 14:25, April 3, 2012 (UTC) My turn AUS : 1 Fina......0% do I even need to tell you why ? : 2 Grant......8% just because Australia retire almost everything that cause deaths or damage but i really don`t think this one is going. : 3Heidi ......7%less than grant because i think that it cause less damge than him. : 4Iggy:25% kill 23 in Indonesia and cause damage he is the highest for retirement on my part I don`t give him more because I don`t know if Indonesia retire names. : 5 Jasmine:3% great intensity and big waves to some islands she definitely is not going : 6 Koji 1% What does this do??? nothing you are staying : 7 Lua 60% for now damage was not terrible and I want to see more reports but because Australia retires almost everything that is the number I put her of now : SPAC : Cyril 1% did nothing this was the only storm of this season what a shame it looks like it will be a record for this basin like it was record for the NIO last year. : Daphne 15% cause a lot of flood in the south pacific islasnds but not enough damage to be retire : Allanjeffs 16:25, February 4, 2012 (UTC) Might as well: Australia: *Fina - 0% - Nope. *Grant - 23% - Australia has a generous track record, but Grant likely won't go. *Heidi - 11% - Wasn't like Grant. *Iggy - 45% - Damage wasn't that bad for Australia, but it killed 16 people, so you can't say never here. *Jasmine - 5% - Most of the damage was small, despite it's immense strength. *Koji - 0% - No impact in the Australian region, and even it's second SWIO name didn't do anything either. *Lua - 70% - I heard damage wasn't as bad as it could have been, but because Australia retires almost everything that hits them, Lua gets a 7/10 chance. South Pacific: *Cyril - 5% - Something to talk about, but mostly not severe. *Daphne - 5% - I won't neglect the flooding in the SPac, but still, chances are not in favor here. Ryan1000 14:50, February 2, 2012 (UTC)